![]() I have nothing to add to it.īut it did put me in mind of a related matter, namely the ways in which legal systems can make either Goofuses or Gallants of us all.Ī great many years ago, I attended a fascinating talk by Shlomo Sternberg, a professor of mathematics at Harvard and a scholar of Jewish law. The whole thing is well worth reading (as is almost anything else from the same author). He’s not blogging just about the pandemic he’s using the pandemic to illustrate a broader point about the virtues of being a Gallant, not a Goofus. We don’t have to worry about it.”, while Gallant would have done a cost-benefit analysis and found that putting some tough measures into place, like quarantine and social distancing, would be worthwhile if they had a 10 or 20 percent chance of averting catastrophe.Īlexander’s point transcends current events. So a few weeks ago when we all thought that the chance of a global pandemic was, oh, about 10%, Goofus said “10%? That’s small. ![]() ![]() Gallant does cost-benefit analysis and reasons under uncertainty. Goofus (says Alexander) treats new ideas as false until somebody provides incontrovertible evidence that they’re true. The control group said “15%? That’s less than 50%, which means cryonics probably won’t work, which means I shouldn’t sign up for it.” The frequent user group said “A 12% chance of eternal life for the cost of a freezer? Sounds like a good deal!” Making decisions is about more than just having certain beliefs. In a long and characteristically thoughtful blog post, Alexander concludes that: Among members of a control group with no interest in the subject, the estimate was about 15%. Active members of the forum, many of whom had pre-paid for brain freezing, thought there was about a 12% chance it would work. Why do some people sign up to have their brains frozen for possible future resurrection, while others don’t? You might think it’s because the first group has more faith in future technology, but Scott Alexander has survey data to suggest otherwise.
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